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From MISNAJan. 28, 2011
Sudan: Referendum, Country on the Brink of Change
“While the South takes big steps toward secession, the Sudanese government finds
itself at a crossroads. In fact, we cannot forget that even as the lights are
shining on Juba, it is what will happen in Khartoum that shall determine the
region’s future,” said Nasredeen Abdulbari, a political analyst at the ‘Sudan
Tribune’ and human rights activist who spoke to MISNA about the complex
challenges that Sudan will face on the eve of the very likely independence of
the Southern regions.
“The almost certain separation of South Sudan, perceived as a trauma by most
Sudanese citizens in the North is a given. However, the government of president
Omar Hassan al-Beshir is being fingered as the most responsible for this
secession. The opposition parties, never as in this moment, have risen up
against the National Congress Party (NCP, the government party) criticizing the
economic effects that this event will bring with it” said Abdulbari.
He added that “inflation is constantly growing having reached 12% while the
central bank is frenetically trying to stabilize the currency while the
government risks losing 75% of its oil reserves”. Even if growth prospects for
the long term are better in the North than the South, analysts agree in
suggesting that the South’s secession will have a strong impact on the Sudanese
economy.
“Now the country makes 475,000 barrels a day of oil, 350,000 of which comes from
the South. Those in charge in Khartoum aim to reduce this reliance with new
exploration that should yield fresh deposits, which will, however, burden the
central coffers until that time,” adds Abdulbari. He says that the announced
‘austerity’ program, which includes absurd cuts to basic items “will not only
provoke malcontent in the population, it will be unable by itself to balance the
scale”.
In this scenario, the issue over the status of the oil region of Abyei, where a
referendum was to have been held along with the one in South Sudan, it could
serve to compensate losses. An accord dated January 17 provides for a discussion
of the issue in the context of post referendum negotiations, along with economic
issues and the definition of the borders.
“What I happening is an extremely delicate situation in which the international
community and the countries of the area will be called to play a fundamental
role,” says Abdulbari, underlining that “Even to the South with the arrival of
some 180,000 people since the start of October, and a further 100,000 expected
in March, prices have soared exponentially; not to mention the fact that the new
state will have to start from scratch, in an area that still shows the signs of
the civil war, with few water sources, still significant tribal differences and
a total lack of infrastructure”.
In such a context “investors, Africans as well as Arabs, Chinese and Americans
have already started to come sensing the birth, more than a new country, of a
new market in which to invest and import,” said Abdulbari. He noted that
external actors “ should not underestimate the role of guarantor for the peace
of a solid connection between the two countries’ economies”.
